There’s a glut of philosophy of epidemiology papers in the current issue of Studies in History and Philosophy of the Biological and Biomedical Sciences (Dec 2015, vol 54: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/13698486). There is a special section, Prediction in Epidemiology and Medicine, arising from a workshop at KCL organised by Jonathan Fuller and Luis Flores last year. There are also two papers on related themes, not included in that section, but fortuitously published at the same time. All listed below.
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Evidence, illness, and causation: An epidemiological perspective on the Russo–Williamson Thesis (Alexander R. Fiorentino, Olaf Dammann)
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Effectiveness of medical interventions (Jacob Stegenga)
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Prediction in epidemiology and medicine (Jonathan Fuller, Alex Broadbent, Luis J. Flores)
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The Risk GP Model: The standard model of prediction in medicine (Jonathan Fuller, Luis J. Flores)
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Measuring effectiveness (Jacob Stegenga)
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Causation and prediction in epidemiology: A guide to the “Methodological Revolution” (Alex Broadbent)