And you have to ask what would have happened if there had been no filming.
https://m.news24.com/SouthAfrica/News/pics-protest-over-food-parcels-erupts-in-johannesburg-20200428
You know it’s real when people protest in bad weather (seriously, it’s a real factor in turnout, as anyone who has tried to organise a protest will attest)
‘Seattle’s Leaders Let Scientists Take the Lead. New York’s Did Not’ https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2020/05/04/seattles-leaders-let-scientists-take-the-lead-new-yorks-did-not
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanchi/article/PIIS2352-4642(20)30095-X/fulltext ‘School closure and management practices during coronavirus outbreaks including COVID-19: a rapid systematic review’
The Lancet Child and Adolescent Health, VOLUME 4, ISSUE 5, P397-404, MAY 01, 2020
https://unherd.com/2020/04/which-epidemiologist-do-you-believe/
And as well as asking this, he provides a nice analysis. “…right in spirit, wrong on numbers” is something that I’ve tried to account for in my model of good epidemiological prediction. In no other field of knowledge besides forecasting do we so easily accept accuracy to indicate knowledge. In no other field do we suffer so severely from a lack of tools to distinguish knowledge from lucky guess. Now we are seeing that I think.
Swedish expert: why lockdown is the wrong policy: https://unherd.com/podcasts/swedish-expert-why-lockdowns-are-the-wrong-policy/
Imperial’s Neil Ferguson defends lockdown strategy: https://unherd.com/podcasts/imperials-neil-ferguson-defends-lockdown-strategy/
Was pointed to this interesting website by Jason Mitchell – seems great.
Documentary showing the reality of lockdown for the world’s poor
7 min version (low res, suitable for whatsapp etc)
COVID on the Breadline. Short version from PICTURING HEALTH on Vimeo.30 min version
COVID on the Breadline from PICTURING HEALTH on Vimeo.For me the most striking point is that measures other countries are adopting as they ease restrictions look rather like what Sweden has been doing. South Africa is going to “Level 4” but the rationale is not apparent from the death rate or infection rate, which both continue to curve upward. I think there is a lot of tacit admission of failure going on in places where a lockdown should have been more carefully considered.
Thanzi la Onse (Health of All) from PICTURING HEALTH on Vimeo.
This is a film someone sent me about allocating resources in Malawi’s main hospital, and by extension, in all low resource settings. It’s interesting in itself but I think just the images are worth seeing if you’re from the West/North and have a Western/Northern image of a hospital. It’s not gruesome or graphic: it’s just striking how small and informal everything looks. Watch a bit more and you’ll get a flavor of both the shortages, and the way that allocation works – competition, persuasion, patching budgets together. It gives you a flavour of the sub-Saharan context of operation. The lack of basic equipment such as ventilators is of course shocking. (If you aren’t aware, the ICU unit is fundamentally built around the mechanical ventilator.) It’s eye-opening. You’ll see what I mean…
CPEMPH 