“Lockdown is a luxury” – Online Covid-19 Conversation #1, 25 April, Atlantic Fellows for Social and Economic Equity

https://afsee.atlanticfellows.org/events/lockdown-is-a-luxury

25 April 14:00 UTC / 15:00 London / 16:00 Johannesburg / 17:00 Nairobi / 19:30 New Delhi / 19:45 Kathmandu

Registration: https://us02web.zoom.us/meeting/register/upwrfu2pqz4tH9ZCBpKzvlXj4keyGefn5vlJ

Join the first of Atlantic Fellows for Social and Economic Equity’s online conversations that look towards a new social and economic future after the COVID-19 pandemic. “Lockdown is a Luxury” will be led by Fellows living and working in Asia and Africa. Saida Ali, Tracy Jooste, Appu Suresh and Kripa Basnyat will share first-hand experiences and insights on the pandemic and its current and long-term impacts.

A third of the world’s population — some 2.6 billion people — are now under varying degrees of lockdown in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic. For those who have the privilege of withdrawing into comfortable isolation, who can work from home and who have enough money to weather the storm, lockdown and social distancing are effective options. But what about the poor, who make up the majority of the world’s population and who are already facing social and economic inequalities? Is the worldwide WHO-approved lockdown an unaffordable luxury?  

From street vendors to house cleaners, sex workers to migrant labourers, daily wage workers everywhere are struggling with immediate and often complete losses of income and the impracticality of following measures such as lockdowns and social distancing. Those living in dense, low-income informal settlements in countries such as Kenya, India, Bangladesh, South Africa and Brazil have seen limited access to water and sanitation restricted further still. Around the world, cases of domestic violence and sexual abuse are rising. “Flattening the curve” is a distant goal, but hunger and poverty are here now.  

In India, nearly 400 million migrant workers’ lives have been upended. As places of work close down, as states shut borders and halt transportation, and as workers run out of cash, they have no choice but to walk hundreds of miles back home. In Kenya, rural widows are working and walking longer hours for fewer shillings to put food on the table: the struggle now is not for social justice or gender equity, but survival. For millions of Africans, coronavirus and the responses of states and governments have only exacerbated poverty and powerlessness.  

What does today look like on the ground in Asia and Africa? What will tomorrow bring? Atlantic Fellows for Social and Economic Equity — activists, policy-makers, practitioners and movement-builders from around the world — offer their insights.

Speakers: Saida Ali, Kripa Basnyat, Tracy Jooste, Appu Suresh

Lower COVID risk among smokers?… #epitwitter

Some evidence that some smokers may in fact have LESS serious symptoms than non smokers. Interesting! Wonder if this will hold water on further investigation. The researchers are now planning to test nicotine patches.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/22/french-study-suggests-smokers-at-lower-risk-of-getting-coronavirus

15 fatalities on the 15th in a taxi/minibus crash – maybe South Africans have a reason to fear COVID-19 less than Europeans

On 15 April, 15 occupants of a taxi-minibus (i.e. all of them) died in a head-on collision. Lockdown has reduced road fatalities to a record low, ironically; these people were particularly unlucky. But the event illustrates the kind of hazard that South Africans face daily. Life expectancy here is 59 for men, 65 for women. COVID-19 mortality rises sharply in the 60s, and, while this may not “transport” to African populations, we’re apparently happy to “transport” the exact same measures used elsewhere. Not enough cost-benefit analysis being done. Lockdown might save some from road traffic accidents but it will kill more from malnutrition and diseases endemic in the region, as malnutrition reduces resistance and medical supplies are diverted.

COVID on the Breadline

The Institute for the Future of Knowledge at the University of Johannesburg has partnered with Picturing Health to make a short documentary depicting the impact of severe lockdown measures on those living in poverty in the developing world.

COVID on the Breadline from PICTURING HEALTH on Vimeo.

Continue reading

Predicting Pandemics: Lessons from (and for) COVID-19

This is a live online discussion between Jonathan Fuller and Alex Broadbent, hosted by the Institute for the Future of Knowledge in partnership with the Library of the University of Johannesburg. Comments and discussion are hosted on this page, and you can watch the broadcast here:

We know considerably more about COVID-19 than anyone has previously known about a pandemic of a new disease. Yet we are uncertain about what to do. Even where it appears obvious that strategies have worked or failed, it will take some time to establish that the observed trends are fully or even partly explained by anything we did or didn’t do. And when we take a lesson from one place and try to apply it in another, we have to contend with the huge differences between different places in the world, especially age and wealth. This conversation explores these difficulties, in the hope of improving our response to the uncertainty that always accompanies pandemics, our ability to tell what works, our sensitivity to context, and thus our collective ability to arrive at considered decisions with clearly identified goals and a based on a comprehensive assessment of the relevant costs, benefits, risks, and other factors.

Further reading:

Professor Alex Broadbent (PhD) is Director of the Institute for the Future of Knowledge at the University of Johannesburg and Professor of Philosophy at the University of Johannesburg. He specialises in prediction, causal inference, and explanation, especially in epidemiology and medicine. He publishes in major journals in philosophy, epidemiology, medicine and law, and his books include the path-breaking Philosophy of Epidemiology (Palgrave 2013) and Philosophy of Medicine (Oxford University Press 2019).

Dr Jonathan Fuller (PhD, MD) is a philosopher working in philosophy of science, especially philosophy of medicine. He is an Assistant Professor in the Department of History and Philosophy of Science (HPS) at the University of Pittsburgh, and a Research Associate with the University of Johannesburg. He is also on the International Philosophy of Medicine Roundtable Scientific Committee. He was previously a postdoctoral research fellow in the Institute for the History and Philosophy of Science at the University of Toronto.