Continent has limited confirmed virus fatalities but experts warn it is too early to draw conclusions
— Read on www.ft.com/content/e9cf5ed0-a590-4bd6-8c00-b41d0c4ae6e0
Some of us have been suggesting for some time that the risk profile of Africa may differ from that of other regions. It is too early to draw firm conclusions but there is good reason to seek a stronger evidence base for extreme lockdown measures given their cost.
Preventive medicine and public health expert Dr David Katz on Real Time with Bill Maher: https://youtu.be/Lze-rMYLf2E
Also shares interesting views about his experiences as a volunteer physician in Bronx hospitals
https://m.news24.com/SouthAfrica/News/pics-protest-over-food-parcels-erupts-in-johannesburg-20200428
You know it’s real when people protest in bad weather (seriously, it’s a real factor in turnout, as anyone who has tried to organise a protest will attest)
‘Seattle’s Leaders Let Scientists Take the Lead. New York’s Did Not’ https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2020/05/04/seattles-leaders-let-scientists-take-the-lead-new-yorks-did-not
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanchi/article/PIIS2352-4642(20)30095-X/fulltext ‘School closure and management practices during coronavirus outbreaks including COVID-19: a rapid systematic review’
The Lancet Child and Adolescent Health, VOLUME 4, ISSUE 5, P397-404, MAY 01, 2020
https://unherd.com/2020/04/which-epidemiologist-do-you-believe/
And as well as asking this, he provides a nice analysis. “…right in spirit, wrong on numbers” is something that I’ve tried to account for in my model of good epidemiological prediction. In no other field of knowledge besides forecasting do we so easily accept accuracy to indicate knowledge. In no other field do we suffer so severely from a lack of tools to distinguish knowledge from lucky guess. Now we are seeing that I think.
Swedish expert: why lockdown is the wrong policy: https://unherd.com/podcasts/swedish-expert-why-lockdowns-are-the-wrong-policy/
Imperial’s Neil Ferguson defends lockdown strategy: https://unherd.com/podcasts/imperials-neil-ferguson-defends-lockdown-strategy/
Was pointed to this interesting website by Jason Mitchell – seems great.
CPEMPH 